IPO Allotment Chance Calculator

By a draw when the retail quota is oversubscribed. SEBI’s rule is that each retail allottee gets at least one lot (regulation 49(4) of the ICDR Regulations), so the most allottees the quota can have is its shares divided by the lot size. The registrar, with the stock exchange, picks that many winners from the valid applications. If there are more lots than applications, everyone gets a lot and the shares left over are shared in proportion to the rest of each bid.

Not in the retail or HNI quotas. Every valid application has the same chance of the minimum allotment whatever its size: in SEBI’s own worked example 1,75,000 lots go to 2,00,000 applicants in the ratio 7 : 8 at every bid size, and in Bajaj Housing Finance’s retail quota the ratio was 496 : 2125 for one lot and 197 : 844, the same 23.3%, for bigger bids. In the shareholder and employee quotas allotment is pro rata, so a bigger bid does raise the chance: in Bajaj Housing Finance’s shareholder quota one lot had a 5.69% chance and 13 lots 74.0%.

Apply from more than one PAN: each adult in the family with their own PAN, demat account and bank account is a separate draw, so three applications at a 10% chance give a 27% chance that at least one is allotted. Bid at the cut-off price so the bid is not left below the final price, and accept the UPI mandate well before 5 pm on the closing day. If you are eligible for a shareholder quota, bid there too; the RHP says whether such a bid counts as a multiple bid (Jio Platforms’ says it does not). A second bid from the same PAN in one quota can be rejected, and a bid paid from someone else’s bank account is rejected.

The HNI quota is split: one-third for bids above ₹2 lakh up to ₹10 lakh, two-thirds for bids above ₹10 lakh (regulation 32(3A)). Winners in both get the minimum application above ₹2 lakh, drawn by lot (regulation 49(4A)). Because bids in the bigger sub-quota average about five times that minimum, its chance is usually higher: in the four oversubscribed allotments checked on this page it was 3 to 5 times the ₹2–10 lakh odds.

SEBI’s T+3 timetable, where T is the day bids close: the basis of allotment is approved on T+1, money is unblocked by 4 pm and shares are credited by 6 pm on T+2, and the shares list on T+3. Working days are trading days that are not bank holidays, so a holiday pushes the dates back; the calculator counts them on NSE’s 2026 lists. The RHP and the closing advertisement give the official dates.

Nothing is debited. An IPO bid is made through ASBA: the money stays in your bank account, blocked, and the block is lifted on T+2. If it is still blocked after that, SEBI’s compensation is ₹100 a day or 15% a year of the amount, whichever is higher, from T+3 until it is unblocked.

Each person applies in their own name, with their own PAN, demat account and bank account or UPI ID. A bid paid from a third party’s bank account or UPI ID is rejected (SEBI ICDR Master Circular, chapter 10), and the registrar matches the PAN on the bid with the PAN of the bank account and of the demat account.

Individuals can block up to ₹5 lakh through UPI. A bigger HNI bid goes through ASBA by net banking or at the bank branch.

Shares sold within 12 months give a short-term capital gain taxed at 20% under section 196 of the Income-tax Act, 2025, plus 4% cess. Held longer, the gain is long-term and taxed at 12.5% on equity gains above ₹1.25 lakh in the year, under section 198. The calculator shows both on a what-if sale price.

If you are eligible, it is a separate pool with its own subscription, and allotment in it is pro rata, so the chance rises with the size of the bid up to the quota’s limit, usually ₹2 lakh. Eligibility is fixed on a date in the RHP, so buying the parent company’s shares after that date does not qualify.